When bonds and stocks decline a lot and simultaneously it suggests inflation is rising rapidly even as the economy is stagnating or contracting (or will soon do so). For most economists today, that combination is near-impossible.
Investing
Equity Performance Amid One-Party Rule in America
If history (especially more recent history) is a guide, U.S. equity gains over the next two years of full Democratic control will be inferior, a result that is more probable given that the party is currently more anti-business, anti-profit, and anti-capitalist than at any other time since 1970.
The Benefits of Issuing Gold Bonds
There are simple and clear fiscal benefits to a government that issues a gold bond.
The Hidden Perils of Low Interest Rates
Investors may continue to benefit for some time from the consistent boosting of financial markets by central banks. However, the longer a major correction or even a crash takes to develop, the more sudden, deep and devastating it may be.
Black Gold Loses Glitter
While it is true that the new drilling techniques have revolutionized energy production in the U.S. and Canada, the increase in production has been mostly negligible on the global stage.
Investors Ignore Frightful Geopolitics
When the former Soviet Union collapsed almost 25 years ago, most global strategic forecasters assumed that the U.S. would adapt pragmatically to her new status of sole world superpower. Instead she has pursued a variety of misguided nation-building adventures and has...
Too Big to Pop?
It’s as if the concept of “too big to fail” has evolved into the belief that some bubbles are too big to pop.
Riding Into The Sunset or a Brick Wall
A month ago, I presented the case for why Fed Chairman Bernanke would have strong motivation to launch another round of quantitative easing (QE) before the election. In short, it would save him his job. Now, I didn't predict with certainty that he would do so - only...
Wary Investors Give US Stocks Another Go
Recently, the stock market has been roaring, with the S&P 500 up a stunning 22% from October 3, 2011, which was the low of last year. In fact, the first month of 2012 has been one of the best Januaries on record for US stocks. On top of that, last Friday's...
What Effect of Near Zero Interest Rates Until 2014 Have On The Economy?
With its announcement last week that it will keep interest rates near zero until at least late 2014, the Federal Reserve has put another large crack into the foundations underlying the US dollar. In a misguided attempt to provide clarity and transparency, Ben Bernanke...
Straightening Out the Strait
Recently some of the fears that investors had focused on in the 11th hour debt negotiations in Greece have drifted southeastward towards the Strait of Hormuz. An increasingly bellicose Iran threatens to throw the world economy into confusion with the potential closure...
Fed Plays PR Games
The world was taken by surprise recently by the Federal Reserve Board's announcement that it would publish some of its economic forecasting that forms the basis for its short-term interest rate strategy. The Fed claims that the move will vastly increase so-called...
Who is the Real Barack Obama?
For most of his time as a national political figure, Barack Obama has been careful to cloak his core socialist leanings behind a veil of pro-capitalist rhetoric. This makes strategic sense, as Americans still largely identify as pro-capitalist. However, based on his...
Why Is The U.S. Dollar Rising Against The Euro?
Recent U.S. economic data, such as the modest drop in the unemployment rate and the massive expansion of consumer credit, have suggested that the American economy is finally recovering. Opposite conclusions are being thrown at Europe, where many are convinced that...
2012 Offers Few Reasons for Optimism
As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank...
No Courage To Face The Music in America or Europe
As the year draws to a close, understandable confusion reigns in the minds of many investors. While short-term indicators, such as consumer confidence, appear to beckon recovery, the longer-term strategic issues remain shrouded in the smoke and mirrors of central bank...
Risky Moves Spark Quick Rally
Last week, with liquidity concerns reaching a crisis point for Europe, central banks around the world, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, stepped in to provide emergency measures to insure that the financial gears continue to turn. At the same time, the European Central...
Euro and the Dollar: Whose Fuse is Shorter?
With fiscal time bombs ticking in both Europe and the United States, the pertinent question for now seems to be which will explode first. For much of the past few months it looked as if Europe was set to blow. But Angela Merkel's refusal to support a Federal Reserve...
Mortgage Crisis Goes Primetime
A near-death experience often provides needed perspective to effectuate real change. But no matter how often the over-regulated and over-subsidized US banking sector flirts with disaster, it never seems to change its ways. Three years have gone by since subprime...
President Obama Promotes Plan to Raise College Tuitions
President Obama today announced a plan that will ensure students are able to commit to higher levels of federally backed student loans. By limiting student obligations to repay, and by passing more of the repayment burden onto taxpayers, colleges and universities will...
President Obama Promotes Plan to Raise College Tuitions
President Obama today announced a plan that will ensure students are able to commit to higher levels of federally backed student loans. By limiting student obligations to repay, and by passing more of the repayment burden onto taxpayers, colleges and universities will...
Greek Bondholders at a Loss
In an agreement announced overnight, the European Union offered $100 billion to stem an imminent Greek debt default in exchange for a 50% haircut to Greek bondholders. This is a bittersweet victory for those of us who believe in the power of the free market. When the...
Greeks May Look North To Iceland’s Debt Default
As a final bailout framework for Greece continues to elude negotiators from France and Germany, the situation on the ground in Athens continues to deteriorate alarmingly. Protests have turned increasingly violent and riots have occurred in the most sensitive portions...
Greeks May Look North To Iceland’s Debt Default
As a final bailout framework for Greece continues to elude negotiators from France and Germany, the situation on the ground in Athens continues to deteriorate alarmingly. Protests have turned increasingly violent and riots have occurred in the most sensitive portions...
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