Don Luskin

Don Luskin is Chief Investment Officer for Trend Macrolytics, an economics research and consulting service providing exclusive market-focused, real-time analysis to the institutional investment community. You can visit the weblog of his forthcoming book ‘The Conspiracy to Keep You Poor and Stupid’ at www.poorandstupid.com. He is also a contributing writer to SmartMoney.com.

Stocks Look Cheap Historically, But They May Get Cheaper

With stocks at new highs, are prices too high for the value-minded investor to pay? I say no — although if you are a value-minded trader, the answer may be yes. The way I look at stock valuations is by comparing consensus forward earnings to current long-term...

Republicans: The Party of Big Government?

What should investors do about this month’s elections, in which control of Congress went to the Democratic party for the first time in a dozen years? I suppose the first thing is to say “Thanks” to the guys who got booted from office on Tuesday. Be...

Creating Unemployment

Her’s a fantastic idea that will make everybody richer. Let’s pass a law setting a minimum price on used cars. How about, say, $15,000? If you’ve got an old beater you want to sell, and you were worried that you’d only get a couple thousand...

Hands Off My Net

The S&P 500 has more than doubled over the last 10 years — a decade in which the Internet came out of nowhere, and established itself as the technology platform of the new global economy. The Internet has been the greatest engine of economic growth the...

Maryland Wallops Wal-Mart

If you own stock in Wal-Mart Stores, be afraid — be very afraid. Yes, it wasn’t all that long ago that I was recommending buying shares of the giant retailer. But things have changed. Right after I recommended Wal-Mart last October it rallied by as much as...

Stocks Will Shine Again

Two weeks ago I suggested that investors sell Exxon Mobil and use the proceeds to buy Wal-Mart Stores. If you’d made the trade that day, then you’d be ahead 11% overall — Wal-Mart is up 3.6%, and Exxon Mobil is down 7.4%. I imagine most people...

Running Out of Gas

There aren’t many iron-clad rules in investing, but there’s one: Bet against anything that the vast majority of investors agree upon. Right now, based on conversations with my clients, who are some of the best and brightest investors on Wall Street,...

Don’t Look a Gift Horse in the Mouth

Alan Greenspan had his “conundrum,” and I’ve got mine. Greenspan’s conundrum: why are long-term interest rates staying so low for so long? Mine is why stock-market volatility is so low despite a global economic background that, on the face of...

Lessons From the Poker Table

Last month in Las Vegas, 5,619 contestants were vying for the 36th annual World Series of Poker’s No-Limit Texas Hold-‘Em Championship. The total prize pool was $52,818,610 — by far the richest purse in the history of sports. Just think about...

The London Terrorist Attacks and the Stock Market

Why did stocks finish the day higher after Thursday’s tragic terrorist bombings in London? There are several very simple reasons. To begin with, the market wasn’t surprised. Ever since September 11, 2001, markets have been braced for terrorist attacks....

Refining Your Oil Strategy

On Thursday afternoon crude oil futures hit $60 a barrel, and investors hit the panic button. Apparently $59 was fine. $60, for some reason, was a big problem. There’s nothing fundamental about $60 a barrel. There’s no reason to think that the economy will...

Stocks vs. Bonds: Stocks Win

Here are two investments I’d like you to consider. The first is a Treasury bond maturing in 10 years. The second is the Standard & Poor’s 500. Think you already know everything there is to know about them? Think again. Let’s start with the bond....

The Sky Isn’t Falling

A generation of investors has been converted to the gospel of equities: Stocks may rise or fall over the short term, but over many decades a diversified portfolio will be the ticket to retirement heaven. The chief prophet of this belief has been Wharton professor...

Hedges Are About to Roll

Hedge funds are the new “dumb money.” At least that’s what so many of my institutional clients are telling me. And they should know, considering they’re hedge funds themselves. Don’t get me wrong. My clients are the larger hedge funds...

It’s About Time

The market is full of mysteries. Here we are with the yield on 10-year Treasurys falling below 4%, and everyone’s saying that’s because the bond market is predicting a recession. Yet — Friday’s reversal notwithstanding — stocks have just...

Social Security: There is No Trust Fund, Only IOU’s

On Tuesday, President Bush had the most bizarre cabinet meeting any president is ever going to have. It was a meeting with an actual cabinet. A filing cabinet. A filing cabinet in Parkersburg, W. Va., to be precise. Strange? Yes. But then again this is a very...

Get Ready for Another Strong Year

So what’s not to love about 2004? I admit that it wasn’t easy going, but at this writing it looks like the S&P 500 is going to close out the year at better than three-year highs, with something like an 11% total return. The Russell 2000 Index of...

Options, Schmoptions

Well, it finally happened. The Financial Accounting Standards Board — the group that determines so-called “generally accepted accounting principles” for financial reporting — has ruled that companies must report the costs of stock options on...

Ownership Has Its Privileges

If you’re reading this column, you’re probably an investor in the stock market. That makes you a member of the approximately 60% of American households that own stocks, either directly or indirectly. That also makes you part of what President Bush likes to...

Fear is an Investor’s Best Friend

Fear is an investor’s best friend. Fear makes stocks cheap, so that you can buy them at great prices. But, of course, to dare to do that, you have to be unafraid. It’s a bit of a paradox. Stocks have soared since the climax of fear this summer — a...

Scary Treasury Bonds

Here’s and investment that’s such a rip-off that Eliot Spitzer ought to be investigating it. It ties up your money for five years and produces almost no profits. And then you have to pay taxes on the profits you didn’t make in the first place. Who...

Hail to the Chief, No Matter Who He Is

“You are a flaming Bush-loving Republican idiot.” So began an e-mail I received this morning about last Friday’s column. There have been dozens like it in recent weeks because I’ve dared to be bullish on growth and tech, and because I’ve...

Oracle is Free To Buy PeopleSoft: Chalk One Up for Capitalism

Despite record oil prices, rising interest rates, a flood of earnings warnings and a volatile election less than a month away, stocks have been heading steadily higher ever since they bottomed on August 12, with the beleaguered NASDAQ leading the way. Today’s...

A Conspiracy Theory: Bush Contracts

See if you can guess which stock I’m talking about. This stock topped out in early January at 75. It steadily declined all year, hitting bottom at 49 on Aug. 12. After that, it rallied magnificently. On Monday it was trading at 65. Then something very strange...

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