By Caleb Jasso for IER
On January 2nd, at 10:46 pm, the United States initiated Operation Absolute Resolve, leading to the capture of former President Maduro of Venezuela. Along with his wife, Maduro was extracted from Caracas and relocated to New York, where he has been charged with Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States. Leading up to the capture of President Maduro, the United States began enforcing sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers by seizing ships such as the Skipper on December 21st, 2025, which was carrying two million barrels of oil to Matanzas, Cuba. Utilizing a shadow fleet of illegal vessels, Maduro’s regime had been supplying America’s adversaries with heavily discounted oil. These adversaries include China and Cuba, both of which boast atrocious records of human rights violations.
Venezuela boasts one of the largest oil reserves in the world, which should have yielded immense wealth for the country. Instead, as a result of decades of corruption and socialist policies that led to an extreme diaspora of people and their expertise, Venezuela’s oil contribution to the global economy declined significantly. The military action taken by the United States against Venezuela wasn’t solely about drugs or even oil. Although both are incredibly important variables, at the core of America’s removal of Maduro from power was countering the incursion of the growing geopolitical influence in America’s backyard of adversarial nations such as China and Russia; it was a reminder to those who would think otherwise that the Monroe Doctrine is alive and well.
Venezuela’s Oil
Venezuela boasts one of the largest proven oil reserves in the world, approximately 303 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of the world’s total in 2024. Venezuela has, and continues to, rely heavily on oil revenue as its primary source of government funding, doing so without much economic diversification. This reliance accounts for 80% of all exports and 17% of GDP. Furthermore, Venezuela ships most of its oil to China, approximately 80%, while the rest is distributed to a variety of other countries, including Cuba and the United States.
Venezuela’s oil is mostly heavy crude, a dense, complex type that requires more specialized methods of extraction and refining. Given this and the current state of Venezuela’s economic and political institutions, the investment required for mass production will be costly and time-consuming; immediate large-scale oil production from the nation’s heavy crude is unlikely, but development is possible and currently under discussion. Furthermore, for years, Venezuela has allowed its oil infrastructure to decay, it has been terribly mismanaged, and in some instances, it has been stripped by desperate people seeking any means of survival. Additionally, like most other socialist regimes, Maduro ousted those with expertise, replacing them with political loyalists. The extensive brain drain that has taken place over decades will need to be addressed before any mass increase in production takes place. This will likely be in the form of American experts and Venezuelan refugees returning to formerly abandoned and decaying operations.
The primary beneficiaries of Venezuela’s oil were China and Cuba, both of whom will need to re-evaluate their supply chains, given the potential for Venezuela crude to be cut off. China receives roughly 4-5% of its seaborne supply from Venezuela, whereas Cuba is heavily dependent on Venezuelan crude, with it being upwards of 50% of Cuba’s crude oil imports. This inability to diversify its supply chain has placed Cuba in a detrimentally vulnerable position. Furthermore, by ousting Maduro, Caracas could potentially gain freedom from being a puppet of Beijing and Moscow. This, combined with future anticipated high production rates with a destination for America’s Gulf refineries, which are uniquely tailored to accept the heavy blend type of Venezuelan oil, will increase global supply, directly benefiting the Venezuelan economy. This situation will also decrease the amount of black market crude that has benefited belligerent nations and their proxy entities, such as China, Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia.
Enforcing the Monroe Doctrine Against China and Russia
Given that a significant portion of the strategy behind capturing Maduro was to counter the growing regional influence of China and Russia, precedent for Operation Absolute Resolve can be found in President James Monroe’s 1823 annual address to Congress. Part of his address contained what is known as the Monroe Doctrine, which, at its core, was a warning to European nations to stay out of the Western hemisphere and laid the foundation for the United States as the regional hegemon of the West. Today, it’s primarily China and Russia who have been working to expand their influence in the Western hemisphere and undermine America’s regional power. These nations have a particular interest in Venezuela for its geopolitical significance, given its geographic proximity to the United States, and its vast reserves of oil and other important resources, such as critical minerals.
During the operation, the United States demonstrated a tactical superiority that Russian and Chinese-based weapon systems were unable to match. The limited ground force of approximately twenty special operators was able to engage a far larger force while exposing the limitations of Russian and Chinese weaponry. Furthermore, Operation Absolute Resolve demonstrated the growing importance of electronic warfare, the ability to shut down an enemy’s electric grid, radar, and communications on a previously unseen scale; this also raises the importance of the United States further securing its own grid from similar attacks.
Conclusion
The capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro was a tactical success that has laid the foundation for cutting off China and Cuba from Venezuelan oil, while also limiting the growing regional influence that China, Russia, Iran, and other adversarial nations have enjoyed in the Western hemisphere. Opening Venezuela’s oil production to the global market will lower prices, and will lead to geopolitical ripples from China reassessing its supply chains, a strained Cuba, and even a threatened Canada due to the new future competition for American refineries. Operation Absolute Resolve was also a demonstration of American military might and a reinvigoration of the long-ignored Monroe Doctrine. A free Venezuela contributing its vast oil to the global market with the partnership of the United States is likely the first phase of a much larger grand strategy of geopolitics.
